Roll-odds calculator

How likely are you to hit? Each shop slot is an independent draw weighted by your level's tier odds and by how much of the tier is still in the pool. The closed form is exact for one slot; the distribution comes from 10,000 simulated rolldowns that deplete the pool as you buy.

Unit cost

Your level

Copies held by others (or gone)

Copies you have

Other 4-costs out of the pool

Rough count of every other unit of this tier on the seven other boards and benches.

Gold to spend

Pool 10 copies × 14 distinct 4-costs. Odds verified 2026-09-20 (source).

P(target in one slot)

1.7%

1.68% per slot

P(≥1 copy per roll)

8.1%

20 rolls with 40 gold

Expected copies

1.50

closed form 1.68

Reach 2★ (need 2)

46.1%

Reach 3★ (need 8)

0.0%

Copies found in 20 rolls

18%

36%

29%

13%

Teal bars reach 2★. Monte-Carlo, 10,000 rolldowns, seeded (same inputs → same chart).